The binomial distribution

You’d be better off skipping the boring middle — moderate risk and rewards.

• Get competent at kitchen fundamentals, then perfect two signature dishes.

• Be polite to everyone, but reserve real friendship for a handful of people.

• Use index funds for the base, a few concentrated bets for the potential upsides.

• Read the classics, then pick one or two obscure rabbit holes and go deep.

The same goes for customers — they optimize either for price or quality, not the middle. Ryanair or Emirates; Aldi or Whole Foods; McDonald’s or Michelin restaurants. Make your product feel premium or end up driving margins towards zero.

At work, the defensible portfolio has boring incremental work to keep the lights on, and one or two moonshots. The projects in the middle, consume resource and produce at best OK results.

Skip the middle.